Monday, February 8, 2010

Is it true that Italy overtakes UK in terms of GDP?

In the last decade up to 2008 UK had a substantially larger GDP than Italy. And the growth rate forecasts for 2009 are around -5% for both UK and Italy. But Italy is actually overtaking UK for the weakness of the British pound.


What actually happened is that the financial crisis caused many European investors that previously invested in London stock and bond exchanges to withdraw (the remains of) their money from this market. That caused a plunge is the relative value of the British pound with respect to the euro. Therefore, if measured in the same currency, the British GDP appears to underperform the Italian GDP. As you can see from the graph below, while a euro used to be worth 0.66-0.70 pounds, this year it is worth 0.85-0.95 pounds, that is the pound suffered a 25% devaluation from 2007 to 2009.Is it true that Italy overtakes UK in terms of GDP?
Italy GDP (PPP) $1.823 trillion $31,300 per capita


UK GDP (PPP) $2.226 trillion $36,500 per capita





So, no.





Although the UK has had a fairly disastrous last 18 months, it is essentially a more flexible and dynamic economy, less dependent on a bureaucractic and corrupt state.





I consider that the UK %26amp; Italy are due for a period of poor growth for some years but that the UK is in a better position to cope than Italy where unemployment is likely to stay high even when recovery comes.Is it true that Italy overtakes UK in terms of GDP?
Ipnez is right, even if the UK economy has shrunk substantially in the last year it has not shrunk enough to reduce it's GDP to the level of Italy.





You should not be over impressed by changes that are due to foreigh exchange fluctuation; need to use PPP not spot exchange rates.





Look up national debts; the UK is pretty healthy in comparison.
I think so....





http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6418344/UK-economy-overtaken-by-Italy.html





Actually I really think that it will be very tought for UK and Spain, as these countries decided to de-industrialize themselves many years ago (actually Spain has never started doing industry!)...and it's clear that making and selling high quality goods is very much harder than selling words (or paper, just ask to the Germans!!)





Well, what else to say, when we ';were'; poorer we use to say that we still have good weather and good food...





See you in Tuscany!

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